The People's Republic of China has made its presence as an ascendant power distinctly felt in Washington, D.C. This rivalry has been made clear on issues ranging from the rule of law in the South China Sea to widespread theft of intellectual property to diplomatic battles for influence across the globe. In response, the political leadership of the US has begun to recognize China as a threat. Former US president Donald Trump consistently attacked China throughout his term for producing unfavorable economic conditions to US workers (as well as the still unclear origins of COVID-19), and he presided over an escalation in US rhetoric and actions against China. During his term, the United States government designated China as a currency manipulator, banned US companies from doing business with Huawei (a prominent Chinese telecommunications company with close ties to the Chinese government), and stepped up “freedom of navigation” patrols in the South China Sea, the contested stretch of ocean that China claims most of yet is considered by the UN to be international waters. Moreover, these actions are not limited to a one-party agenda. The most integral part of US President Joe Biden's foreign policy thus far has been a strategic realignment and shift of focus of American foreign policy from the Middle East and Europe to the Asia-Pacific region. This shift is primarily centered on responding to and countering China’s growing economic, diplomatic, and military power. That will be difficult. The United States faces political discord at home. Polls suggest that the United States is now the most divided it has been since the Vietnam war. It is also experiencing foreign challenges such as the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan and brutal war in Ukraine. And finally there is the staggering impact on society of COVID-19. All of these have given China a rare opportunity to seize the moment to pursue its strategic goals. Will it succeed in overtaking the United States?
Perhaps the most glaring (or alarming, depending on the point of view) metric that illustrates China’s rapid ascent comes from the number of new ships being built and commissioned into the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). In 2016 and 2017, the PLAN commissioned eighteen and fourteen ships respectively. In contrast, the United States Navy commissioned five and eight new ships over the same time period. This shipbuilding program falls under the umbrella of a sweeping modernization program the PLAN has been undertaking that foresees the PLAN possessing four-hundred ships by 2025. As a matter of fact, the PLAN is now the largest navy in the world, besting the US Navy by over sixty ships, although the US Navy still retains the lead in sheer tonnage.
The implications of these advancements are two-fold. First, the United States, which for the past eighty years has been the world’s premier naval power, is no longer unopposed. Second, in any hypothetical naval conflict with the People's Republic of China--such as a Chinese attempt to retake Taiwan by force--the US Navy would be on its back-foot. The US Navy is stationed across the globe, and is stretched thin as is, being deployed more frequently with fewer ships than 25 years ago. The United States has attempted to narrow this gap by forming the AUKUS alliance, which will provide close ally Australia with nuclear submarines, but the submarines involved will not be operational for at least a decade.
Meanwhile, the PLAN can focus most of its naval assets in one area, giving it a much better chance of overwhelming any US presence in that battlespace. This does not bode well for US geopolitical interests in the region, and military planners in both DC and Beijing have no doubt taken this new balance of power into account. Short of a rapid and upscaled shipbuilding program, the US Navy can no longer expect to dominate the Indo-Pacific region as it has since the end of World War II.
Another primary area of focus in any comparison of national power is economic strength. The United States and China are the world’s two leading economies, with national GDP’s of $20.936 trillion and $14.722 trillion US dollars respectively. China’s economy has rapidly grown since the 1990’s, and the Chinese economy suffered much less harm due to the COVID-19 pandemic than the US economy, avoiding a recession entirely. Most economic models have the Chinese economy overtaking the United States somewhere between the late 2020s and the mid 2030s, although estimates vary. This change in economic strength is dependent on a multitude of factors, some of which have the potential to slow Chinese growth. Large amounts of private debt and fears of a property bubble have shaken the Chinese economy in recent months, and government crackdowns on certain industries have also made the overall economic environment more unclear. China will also have to overcome an aging population that threatens to inhibit rapid economic growth.
The United States, on the other hand, faces economic problems of its own. Without the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese economy was already forecasted to overtake the US. The United States has struggled in its response to the pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of people dead and negative economic growth that has only recently started to rebound. The United States is also facing slowing population growth as well as the highest inflation in decades.
China’s economy will eventually overtake the United States, even if the precise date remains unclear. Having the world’s largest economy would be the most important component of becoming the world’s premier power, giving China unparalleled leverage and control over the world’s markets. China taking the global economic lead would obviously derail the United States geopolitical position and weaken the rules-based, liberal economic order that the US has overseen and uses to its interests.
The final comparison between China and the United States is an examination of political unity and stability, and how both affect the two nations. The United States is divided. Nine out of every ten Democrats and nine out of every ten Republicans believe a victory by the opposing political party would bring lasting harm to America. Americans disagree on everything from education to the seriousness of coronavirus. An estimated 25% of Americans believe that the results of the 2020 election were fraudulent, a conspiracy theory with no basis in fact that is spread far and wide by former president Donald Trump. This division has culminated in the rise of conspiracy theories such as Qanon and the storming of the Capitol building in 2021, an event that shook the nation to its core while frightening outside observers. Meanwhile, China remains united. The Chinese population is largely supportive of the Communist Party of China, which has provided consistent economic growth, and most importantly, stability. Those who disagree keep their silence, fearful of a massive and omnipresent surveillance state. There are no large protests or public disagreements with the government in China, and a storming of the Capitol-esque event would be unthinkable there.
Which country is more unified and stable? How can the United States successfully repulse an undivided foreign adversary when its citizens disagree on basic facts and indulge in conspiracy theories? Unless the United States manages to come together and unite, it will struggle to compete with China.
The United States has overcome adversity on par with the Chinese threat before (the Soviet Union comes to mind), and it should not be viewed as a done deal that China will overtake the US. As the past two years have shown us, the global situation can change faster than we can imagine. The American system of liberal democracy has thus far persevered and has weathered grim moments in the past. However, China poses a unique economic, military, and political challenge unlike any the United States has seen before. Unless the United States is able to overcome the multitude of issues it now faces, The People’s Republic of China will become the world's premier superpower.
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