Xi Jingping and the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist party face a COVID-19 crossroads. Their options are as follows: either retain the unrelenting “Zero-Covid” policy, or begin to reopen China and ditch harsh and widespread measures meant to restrict the spread of COVID.
China’s Zero-Covid strategy has become notorious in recent months, with widespread media attention paid to the millions of people who have been in brutal lockdown conditions in Shanghai. The Zero COVID policy consists of a harsh regime of mass testing, strict lockdowns, and quarantine camps for those who test positive for COVID. Publicized shortages of food, medicine, and videos of people being literally sealed into their apartments as a result of the policy have racked up millions of views across the internet. The extent of the food shortages and sheer brutality of the lockdown has shocked the West. Most importantly, it has sparked a notable amount of public domestic dissent, which is typically rare in China. Videos that have gone viral across both the global and Chinese internet have shown frustrated and fed up citizens attacking health workers, trying to storm hospitals, and yelling at senior communist party officials when they visit. This is an abnormality in China, where speaking out or criticizing the government can lead to arrest or disappearance. Such acts would be unheard of if the conditions in Shanghai were not truly extreme.
Additionally, Zero-COVID has led to severe and unsustainable economic consequences for China and the world. The hampering of operations in manufacturing and logistical centers have exacerbated already strained supply chain issues globally. Production of goods from electronics to cars has suffered due to shut factories and quarantined workers. Companies from Apple to Toyota have had to slow manufacturing as a result of the lockdowns. Foreign corporations with operations in China are contemplating shutting their facilities, and some are seeking to move some operations from China to other Southeast Asian countries with less strict COVID restrictions. In response to these economic concerns, some members of the Chinese leadership have sought to reassure foreign executives and have held 100,000 strong meetings on meeting economic goals. But assurances from top officials that China will continue to function will only go so far as lockdowns continue to be brutally instituted.
Xi Jingping and the Chinese Communist Party face a crossroads. On one hand, they can recognize that COVID-19 will be endemic globally for the foreseeable future, and that harsh lockdown measures that cause large amounts of economic damage are unsustainable. This option would involve ditching Zero-Covid and going the way of most of the rest of the world, with no lockdowns but higher amounts of COVID cases. On the other hand, they could opt to continue the current policy and try to weather the economic, social, and political hardships that follow.
Neither option afforded to the Chinese leadership is particularly enticing. The Zero-Covid policy is certainly harmful to economic prosperity, social cohesion, and political stability. However, Zero-Covid has kept Covid cases in China relatively low, especially when contrasted to the rest of the globe. At the time of publishing, China has *officially* suffered 886,000 cases and 5,000 deaths, which is particularly impressive when China’s massive population of 1.4 billion people is taken into account. In comparison, the United States, a nation of a mere 329.5 million people, has suffered 85 million cases and 1.1 million deaths. The United States never implemented Chinese-style lockdowns or restrictions and has almost entirely dropped COVID restrictions and mandates. If China drops Zero-Covid, it risks exposing its population to being ravaged by COVID-19 on an American scale, which would be catastrophic. Going the Western route and allowing the country to be swamped by Covid cases is simply not an option for the Chinese leadership. Not only would the instability and resulting loss of credibility be extremely severe, but economic growth would likely also suffer at a level equivalent to Zero Covid if millions of Chinese became sick and died.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been one of Zero-Covids' most powerful and vocal proponents, both in public and throughout the levers of the Chinese government. He has fixated on keeping COVID numbers low and has demanded unrelenting progress on countering COVID cases from his underlings. He is widely expected to be re-elected during the 20th party congress in the latter half of this year to another 5-year term. If (in effect, when) he is re-elected, he will face a Zero-Covid reckoning. A complete change of policy is unlikely, but it is also doubtful that he will maintain the current policy in its full effect. The most likely course of action is a balance of restrictions that are less severe than the present ones and a focus on ensuring businesses stay online and operable. However, a strong uptick in COVID cases may necessitate a return to the Zero-Covid policy in its entirety. China faces an uncertain future. Only time will tell how it will approach it.
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