Regardless of the short term military outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has failed to achieve its long-term strategic goals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, an act unprecedented since the end of World War II, had several strategic goals. First, Putin sought to re-acquire Ukraine and put it under Russian control, viewing it as a territory that had slipped from Russia’s grasp amidst the demise of the Soviet Union. Second, Putin desired to reunite the Russian and Ukrainian people, viewing them as one cultural and ethnic whole, split by geopolitics and the meddling West. Finally, Putin aimed to sow disunity and chaos in the rest of Europe, predicting a weak and disjointed response to his invasion. Not one of these goals has been successfully accomplished, and are now almost wholly unachievable in the long term.
The most important component of Vladimir Putin’s strategy was the military conquest and seizure of Ukraine. Putin and his top generals planned for a lightning war, expecting little to no resistance from the Ukrainian military. This was not to be the case. Although Russian troops have made some progress, especially in Southern Ukraine, the campaign has thus far fallen well short of its objectives. Western intelligence agencies had estimated that the Russian seizure of Kyiv could take seventy-two hours, but as of a month in, Russia has still failed to capture the city. Throughout Ukraine, Ukrainian troops have proven capable of defending against Russian attacks and aggressively ambushing Russian convoys and columns. Russia has lost large quantities of vehicles, supplies, and men, and is now facing major logistical challenges in keeping troops fed and vehicles fueled. Russian morale is reportedly low, and seven Russian major generals have been killed in action as they assessed the frontline. The Russian air force has still not achieved total air supremacy despite overwhelming numerical superiority, and Ukrainian Bayraktar drones continue to pound away at Russian convoys. Ukraine is also being supplied with large quantities of lethal and effective armaments by the EU and the United States. Although Russia may still overcome Ukrainian defenses and has advanced in the southern littoral of the country, the Russian military will continue to take heavy losses and suffer through manpower and equipment shortages. In short, the campaign has turned into a slog for Russia, and nothing like the quick war that Russian commanders had anticipated.
This leads to an additional military issue for Russia. Ukraine has put up a ferocious defense so far, and there are no indications that resistance will cease with tactical Russian victories. A widespread insurgency, equipped with Western weaponry, will make it nearly impossible for Russia to hold Ukrainian territory under occupation. Russia simply does not have enough troops to hold all of Ukraine, especially considering the losses that they have already incurred. Most of the Ukrainian population is aligned against Russian occupation. With nearly 30% of Ukrainians saying that they would actively resist a Russian invasion, an occupation would prove costly, if not impossible for Russia. If the Russian military does eventually manage to conquer the Eastern half of Ukraine, it will be at a heavy cost in men and material, with an insurgency on the rise.
Vladimir Putin’s second main goal in attacking Ukraine was attempting to reunite Russians and Ukrainians, who he views as one group disunited by politics. He illustrated this view in an essay he published in July of 2021, calling Russians and Ukrainians “one people” divided by “Western plots.” However, any chance of fostering brotherly love and unity between Russians and Ukrainains disappeared the moment Russia attacked Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian people have swelled with fierce patriotism and defiance. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky has become a national and international hero, staying in Kyiv and giving regular updates and stirring speeches to the Ukrainian people. When offered an evacuation by the Americans, he responded “I need ammunition, not a ride.” This kind of defiance is a shining example of the brave Ukrainian attitude towards the Russian attackers. “Slava Ukrainy” has become an internationally recognized rallying call. In towns occupied by Russian troops, Ukrainian civilians have protested in the face of tanks and guns. This reinvigorated patriotism would not exist if the country was not under attack. In the span of two weeks, Putin has managed to accentuate and enlarge a distinct Ukrainian identity that is separate from Russia. As the ground campaign continues and indiscriminate Russian bombing and artillery fire kills more civilians, resistance to Russia will continue to grow. Even if Russia occupies Ukraine, Russians will not be viewed as brothers reuniting a lost family, but as enemies and killers. On this front too, Putin faces failure.
Vladimir Putin’s third main goal was to sow chaos and disunity among the nations of Central and Western Europe. He sought to make them doubt the strength of their alliances and intimidate their governments. The reaction thus far has been the complete opposite. Europe stands the most united it has been in decades. The EU, for the first time in its existence, has begun shipping weapons to a nation, and to one that is not even a member state of the EU. All Russian planes have been banned from EU airspace, and the EU is seeking to wean itself off of Russian oil and gas shipments by 2027, effectively removing Vladimir Putin's economic leverage over Central and Western Europe. Outside the bloc, the United Kingdom has been one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters and military suppliers, even before the Russian invasion. Individually, most European countries have announced support for Ukraine and harsh sanctions against Russia. Countries from Belgium to Italy to Portugal have announced additional arms shipments to Ukraine, and Germany has axed Nord Stream II, a major Russian pipeline largely viewed as a projection of Russian economic power. Military budgets across the continent have soared for the upcoming financial year. Most nations have announced sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs, products, and officials. Even nations with anti-EU politics such as Hungary have grudgingly accepted the measures and joined their neighbors in condemning the invasion. Europe now stands together against the Russian threat. President Putin has impressively managed to do what no number of financial or refugee crises could - force the EU into having a single, cohesive, and united foriegn policy.
Vladimir Putin and the Russian military miscalculated on numerous fronts in attacking Ukraine. The invasion will not reap geopolitical benefits for Russia, and will hasten the rise of a new Iron Curtain, shutting Russia off from much of the world. Vladimir Putin will regret returning war to the European continent.
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