The Middle East is in a vacuum. America is distracted in Asia and Eastern Europe. Russia is embroiled in a costly ground war in Ukraine. Likewise, the EU is preoccupied with supporting Ukraine and ensuring its own security. The traditional external power players in the Middle East are heading for the exits, leaving a region that has been traditionally dominated by foreign powers to its own devices. This will lead to some nations in the region being vulnerable but opens the door to certain opportunities for others. The future of the Middle East will be determined by the winners of the power struggle soon to hit it. Countries such as Turkey and Iran stand to gain from the withdrawal of the Great Powers, while nations such as Israel and Saudi Arabia are left in more precarious geopolitical positions. The coming vacuum will test the newly minted Israeli-Saudi-Emirati quasi-coalition. Once considered unthinkable, the coming together of Israeli and Arab is the direct result of a powerful and aggressive Iran that controls sizable international militias and is perennially on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. If the Iran nuclear deal is not reinstated, or the Iranians ignore the renegotiated deal regardless and develop the bomb, Israel will likely be forced into direct military action, sparking a conflict with the potential for massive escalation. However, an escalated Israeli-Iranian struggle for dominance will not be the only effect of the great power vacuum. Turkey has become a major regional player that is likely pleased to see the United States draw down its presence in its backyard. Turkey has participated in the Syrian Civil War, the Libyan Civil war, and established an enlarged presence throughout Africa. Turkey will likely continue to expand its influence in the Middle East and will seize on its US and Russian-backed opponents’ weakness. The withdrawal of external powers will lead to a strategic rebalancing of the Middle East, a rebalancing that will leave losers and winners, and determine the future of the region.
The United States has played an active role in Middle-Eastern affairs since the creation of the State of Israel and has been the major guarantor of Israeli and Saudi security for decades. In recent years, the US has established a minor presence in Syria, killed a major Iranian general, and maintained its presence in key allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Donald Trump’s administration was perhaps the most unashamedly pro-Israel in recent memory, and Trump was not afraid to use force in the region when he deemed it appropriate. However, the current administration is determined to focus on other regions of the world. The so-called “Pivot to Asia” and great power competition with China, along with helping Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion are the primary focuses of US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy. The administration's 2021 National Security Strategy stated that China “is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system”. Biden has few qualms about pulling out of areas not focused on the Chinese threat, which was illustrated by the Afghanistan withdrawal that ended with a Taliban regime in power. The images of desperate Afghans falling from American planes sent worry through the leadership of countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel that rely on American support. Additionally, the Biden administration's attempt to reinstate the Iran deal has been viewed as an attempt to achieve an easy solution to the Iran problem that would enable the United States to shift away from the region. Regardless of whether or not the deal goes through, it is clear that the United States would prefer to leave the region to its own devices.
Furthermore, the United States is not the only external player exiting the region. Russia had been rebuilding the influence it lost in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union, beginning from the early 2000s onwards. This culminated in the 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria that rescued the regime of Bashar Al Assad and helped him win the country’s brutal civil war. Russia was improving its relations with the Gulf States as well as Israel and was competing with the Americans for influence across the region. However, with Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine facing more difficulty than expected, and the Russian economy facing an economic contraction of 11%, the amount of military and economic resources that the Russians can devote to the region is likely to be sharply diminished. Additionally, countries must now weigh the risks of doing business with Russian companies under sanction for fear of Western retribution. It is likely that Russian influence in the region will lessen as the Russians concentrate on Ukraine and avoiding economic disaster. The EU nations are similarly preoccupied with the Ukrainian war and have no desire to play decision-maker in the Middle East; although, they will become more dependent on Arab energy supplies as Russian energy is blacklisted. In short, no external major power has the willpower or resources to return to the amount of presence in the Middle East that they had previously. While China seeks economic ties and energy supplies from the region, it is extremely unlikely that China would become involved militarily and politically to the extent the United States has been. The region, at least for now, is on its own.
So what effect will this external withdrawal have on the Middle East? The pre-occupation of the United States elsewhere will have consequences for Israel and Saudi Arabia, who will face off against a powerful and aggressive Iran. This conflict has already been openly raging for the past decade on the battlefields of Syria and Yemen, with Israel and Saudi Arabia battling a web of Iranian proxies from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards pose a formidable threat to Israeli and Saudi interests and have the ability to disrupt shipping and attack oil fields across the region, as was demonstrated in 2018, when Iran blew up a major Saudi oil refinery. Furthermore, Israel and Iran have been fighting a brutal shadow war for the last several years, with Israel trying to remove the Iranian capability to construct nuclear weapons. Israel has assassinated multiple top Iranian nuclear scientists, stolen thousands of nuclear documents from the center of Tehran, and launched cyber attacks all with the end goal of ending Iranian nuclear efforts before they construct nuclear weapons. This confrontation has the potential to go hot, and the chances of it erupting into a full-blown war elevate exponentially as external powers that maintain a semblance of order leave. Iran certainly considers the prospect of acquiring nuclear weapons more favorably when it is unclear whether America will back up Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel, on the other hand, is determined to prevent this at all costs, and would likely launch a strike on Iranian territory to prevent such an event from occuring. As an Israeli security official stated,“"Israel has no interest in a war with Iran, but we will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons''. Such a conflict would leave no winners, as Israel would likely suffer greatly from Iranian retribution, and Saudi Arabia would have to deal with Iranian control of the Straits of Hormuz. With Iranian militias in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen, the anti-Iranian coalition will have to be cautious as they approach the situation on their own. The withdrawal of the United States leaves Israel and Saudi Arabia in a weaker position, and will result in increased Iranian influence across the region.
Another nation that stands to gain from the withdrawal of external players in the Middle East is Turkey. Turkey has become a regional power in recent years, especially on the military side of the equation. Turkey has fought in Syria, sent advisers and ships to assist the internationally recognized Libyan government in its civil war, and helped rescue the Ethiopian government from Tigrayan rebels when it seemed on the verge of collapse by supplying advanced drones and weaponry. Turkey took advantage of the United States’ abandonment of the Kurds in Northern Syria, launching a major assault against them that resulted in nearly 130,000 Kurds being forced to flee. Turkey has also competed with Russia for influence and control in the Middle East in countries such as Syria, as well as arming countries outside the region such as Azerbaijan that are opposed to Russian interests. Finally, in recent months, the Turkish government has warmed relations with regional governments such as Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Although the Turkish economy has entered a period of downturn, Turkey has successfully established itself on the Middle Eastern stage and will have much more leeway in the region with less US and Russian presence.
The Middle East is entering a new geopolitical era that will see the egress of major external powers and a reshaping of the strategic map as some nations succeed and others struggle. The chances of a conflict erupting between Israel, its Arab allies, and Iran will increase as American presence in the region fades, while any such conflict would risk widespread consequences for both sides. Turkey will continue to take advantage of the void left by both the Russians and Americans and has the potential to cement its status as a regional leader. The question of which Middle Eastern nations will prove to be 21st century success stories will be determined by which nations take advantage of the coming absence of external powers.
Comentários